All Star rosters show West depth vs East supers

The Total Player Value ratings indicate that the Western Conference has the stronger top-to-bottom roster in the upcoming All-Star Game, but that the East has the more imposing top five group.  As a result, an East win may require some heavy lifting by LeBron James and hometown favorite Dwight Howard.

According to the TPV ratings, the East has three of the top four rated players in the game, in James ($ 30.6 million), Howard ($ 26.0) and Derrick Rose, who has missed 10 games but has a $ 25.3 player value rating in the 25 in which he has appeared.  The only West player who has flown in those circles is Kevin Durant, who has a $ 28.3 million player value to date.

Rose appears at $ 21.3 million in the actual player value due to his 10 missed games.  Dwyane Wade has also played at a higher level than any other West player in his 25 games.  He has a player value of $ 22.2 million when he has appeared, but has been reduced to $ 18.2 million due to his nine missed games.

As a result, the East likely has four of the top five or six players.  Kobe Bryant also rates close with Wade and Rose, at $ 21.1 million.  Nevertheless, the rest of the roster analysis shows the West with 10 of the 15 highest rated players.  That is partially explained by the West’s 91-61 advantage in head-up matchups this season.

Here is how the 24 players in the upcoming game grade out, in terms of box value and player value.  Box value represents an individual’s per-game statistical summary, while player value includes subjective visual adjustments with reductions for missed games due to injuries.

WEST BOX VALUE PLAYER VALUE EAST BOX VALUE PLAYER VALUE
K Durant $ 23.3 $ 28.3 L James $ 29.6 $ 30.6
K Bryant $ 18.6 $ 21.1 D Howard $ 21.5 $ 26.0
K Love $ 19.2 $ 20.2 D Rose $ 19.8 $ 21.3
B Griffin $ 18.7 $ 20.2 D Wade $ 20.2 $ 18.2
C Paul $ 17.6 $ 19.1 C Bosh $ 15.3 $ 15.3
R Westbrook $ 17.8 $ 18.8 R Hibbert $ 12.6 $ 12.6
T Parker $ 13.6 $ 18.1 L Deng $ 11.8 $ 11.8
L Aldridge $ 17.9 $ 17.9 A Iguodola $  9.8 $ 11.8
A Bynum $ 17.5 $ 17.0 P Pierce $ 11.0 $ 11.0
D Nowitzki $ 16.1 $ 16.6 D Williams $  8.8 $ 10.8
M Gasol $ 13.2 $ 14.7 C Anthony $ 11.6 $  9.6
S Nash $  8.0 $ 12.0 R Rondo $ 10.3 $  9.3

In the final TPV analysis, the two players who have the best case to feel snubbed are 13-time All-Star  Tim Duncan ( $ 16.9 million) and Josh Smith ( $ 16.4).

Duncan’s  player value  places him above Dirk Nowitzki ($ 16.6) and Marc Gasol ($ 14.7).  At the time of the vote, Duncan graded below Gasol but above Nowitzki, who followed with a strong upsurge.

Actually, all three arguably might have been selected had Steve Nash ( $ 12.0 ) been left off the roster, but West coaches went with the more traditional five-guard setup.

At the time of the vote, Nash rated slightly  above Kyle Lowry, but the Houston guard overtook him in the final week before the game, as he improved to a $ 12.6 million rating.

At $ 16.4 million, Smith actually grades as the No. 5 player in the East, leading fan vote-based starter Carmelo Anthony ( $ 9.6 million), and East frontcourt reserves Chris Bosh ( $ 15.3),  Roy Hibbert ($ 12.6), Luol Deng ($ 11.8), Andre Iguodola ( $ 11.8) and Paul Pierce ( $ 11.0).

At the time of the vote, TPV ratings had Brandon Jennings rated above Deron Williams for an East backcourt spot.  Williams ( $ 10.8 million) has since overtaken Jennings ( $ 10.0), but the third-year Bucks’ guard still rates above Rajon Rondo ( $ 9.3).  Rondo has the higher per-game player value, but has been reduced for missing 10 games due to injuries.

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