Duncan, Smith and Jennings leading All-Star snubs

Tim Duncan has played in 13 consecutive All-Star games since entering the league prior to the 1997-98 season. Barring a last-minute addition, he will miss the 2012 game to be played in Orlando on February 26, According to the latest Total Player Value ratings, however, he should be there.

TPV has three adjustments to the rosters released last night.   Duncan rates over Dirk Nowitzki for a West backup frontcourt slot.  In the East,  Josh Smith grades  ahead of starting forward  Carmelo Anthony, who does not rate as a reserve.   Brandon Jennings rates over Deron Williams as a backcourt reserve.  The rosters are still subject to change, based on injuries which may occur in the next two weeks.

Duncan started slowly, but his case revolves around the fact that San Antonio is 18-9 with Manu Ginobili only playing five games.    Duncan has a $ 15.8 million player rating, higher than his teammate and All-Star reserve selection Tony Parker at $ 14.1, and clearly higher than Nowitzki’s $ 13.7.

Duncan is averaging 13.9 points and 8.3 rebounds, and has played in 26 of his team’s 27 games.  He benefits significantly  from the Spurs’ 18-9 record, which now rates No. 2 in the West behind Oklahoma City.  Nowitzki is averaging 17.6 points and 6.2 rebounds, but has missed four games and his team is only 15-11.

In the East, TPV rates Josh Smith as a starting forward over Carmelo Anthony, who was selected by a fan vote.   Smith is grading at a $ 15.7 million player value, higher than his teammate and All-Star reserve Joe Johnson at $ 12.2, and well ahead of Anthony’s $ 12.0.

Smith has averaged 15.6 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks for a 17-9 Atlanta team, and he has played in all 26 games.  He has also led Atlanta to a 10-5 record since Al Horford was likely lost for the season.  Anthony is averaging 22.3 points, but is averaging just 4.3 rebounds and shooting at a .399 percentage for a team with an 11-15 record.

Jennings  is grading at $ 11.9 million, clearly ahead of Williams’ $ 9.7 rating.  He is slightly behind Anthony, but the selection process requires four guards for each team.  Milwaukee’s third-year point guard is averaging 18.9 points and 5.3 assists for an 11-14 team, and has played in all 25 games.  He has also been instrumental in both of his team’s upset wins over Miami.

Williams is averaging 20.9 points and 8.6 assists, but leads the league in turnovers at 4.3, playing for a team that has an 8-19 record.  Cleveland rookie Kyrie Irving also grades higher than Williams with a $ 10.1 million rating.

According to the TPV ratings, the two players who came closest to making the reserve group were Utah’s Paul Millsap ( $ 15.5 million) and Indiana’s off-guard Paul George ($ 11.7 million).

Millsap is averaging 16.5 points and 9.7 rebounds in leading Utah to a surprising 13-11 record.  He grades above Parker and Steve Nash, but again misses the cut since four guards must be chosen.

George is averaging only 12.2 points, but grabs 5.4 rebounds and has been impressive on defense for a 17-8 Indiana team.

Here are the current Total Player Value ratings on the 24 All Star selections, and the three TPV recommended alternatives.

L James $ 28.3 K Durant $ 27.8
D Howard $ 26.8 K Bryant $ 21.9
D Rose $ 23.8 K Love $ 20.8
D Wade $ 16.4 B Griffin $ 19.9
J Smith $ 15.7 L Aldridge $ 18.5
C Bosh $ 15.3 R Westbrook $ 18.5
P Pierce $ 13.2 C Paul $ 18.5
R Hibbert $ 13.2 A Bynum $ 17.4
A Iguodola $ 13.0 T Duncan $ 15.8
L Deng $ 12.7 M Gasol $ 15.7
J Johnson $ 12.2 T Parker $ 14.1
C Anthony $ 12.0 D Nowitzki $ 13.7
B Jennings $ 11.9 S Nash $ 11.7
D Williams $   9.7

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